Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
